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The Fall of Saddam: The Aftermath and the Future |
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Sunday, 10 April 2005 |
On April 9, 2003, President Bush said in a nationwide address that the
major hostilities in the war he has launched against Saddam Hussein and
his regime on March 20, 2003, under the codename Operation Iraqi
Freedom has ended. Saddam was on the run, his family were
dispersed in various parts of the country, and the most senior members
of his regime were chased by the Americans. CENTCOM were sitting
in the presidential palaces and the vital centers of the regime were
destroyed or severely damaged, few of them were spared.
Operation Iraqi Freedom has lasted three weeks. Militarily and
from the American point of view was a brilliant success. The
mighty American military machine was unleashed against Saddam in a
relentless air campaign which involved no less than a thousand of the
most advanced warplanes using state of the art technology and using
some of the newest and deadliest weapons in their arsenal most up and a
ground campaign involving some of their best soldiers in a great rush
towards Baghdad. The military aspects of the operation from the
American’s perspective were a great success, they suffered only very
few casualties, and were able to finish the military phase of the
operation earlier than its planners have imagined. Saddam and his
greatly overrated elitist military units showed practically no
resistance, the only resistance to the American advance was provided by
paramilitary units and civilians like the serious one which took place
near and around the international airport, that resulted in a very
large number of casualties amongst the Iraqis which were never
mentioned or honestly reported.
The Americans were within a very short time well entrenched and in full
control of practically the whole country, but in spite of the great
loss they have suffered in human life and property, many Iraqis
welcomed the Americans and for two reasons:
- During the preparatory phase of their operation they have
promised and in the words of their highest leadership that they are now
very serious in their intentions to remove Saddam and change his regime
and that when the country would be get rid of Saddam, the Americans
would help the Iraqis in the very urgently needed rebuilding of their
country.
- The reconstruction of its devastated assets, the rejuvenation of
its moribund institutions and its severely depleted infrastructure
something akin to the ingenious Marshall Plan with which the United
States helped the Europeans both the vanquished [Germany] and the
victors to rebuild their counties after the terrifying devastation,
which was after the end of the World War II. But after the
Americans were finished with Saddam and his regime we were not given a
Marshall plan we got ORHA.
ORHA is an acronym for the “Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian
Assistance” and ORHA duly arrived under the leadership of Jay Garner, a
retired army general with a handful of ex-ambassadors, defense
officials and retired army generals. ORHA was plagued from the
beginning by inexperience, bureaucratic infighting and inertia, it
failed and was replaced by the CPA [Coalition Provisional Authority]
under Paul Bremer. The CPA was worse than its predecessor, in
fact Bremer made some incredible mistakes which have contributed to the
current terrible mess, but by June 2004, the Americans decided that the
Iraqis were by then able to take charge of their own affairs. The
country was declared sovereign and granted a legal document which was
called the interim law for the administration of Iraq under the dictats
of which a cabinet was selected led by Dr. Ayad Alawi. Alawi was
faced with a mountain of problems including the arranging of a general
election on January for the election of a National Assembly, which
would be charged with overseeing the writing of a permanent
constitution amongst some other functions.
The failure of the successive civil administrations, and the failure of
the Americans to honor their promises to provide security and the basic
necessities caused a great deal of frustration and disillusionment even
amongst people who were very supportive of the American intervention in
the beginning. This hardening of the attitude of the population
is creating a very fertile soil to the various groups who are actively
opposing the American occupation who are in spite of their diversity
and their lack at the present time of a unified leadership and proper
organization are causing a lot of problems. The resistance
adversely affecting the reconstruction process and the building of a
new political structure, which is absolutely necessary if we are going
to have a free, federal, prosperous and democratic Iraq.
Today, two years after the fall of Saddam, the problems which are
facing this country and its people are very serious and taunting.
The future in spite of some hopeful signs during the last few weeks,
like the election of the promised National Assembly, the election of
the presidential council and the impending arrival of a new cabinet is
still uncertain and unpredictable. The great worry is that if the
problems this country faces at present are not dealt with intelligently
and efficiently, they might very easily develop into something really
catastrophic. This is not Grenada or Panama, the stakes here are
very high.
Dr. Najeeb Hanoudi
Baghdad, April, 9, 2005
email:
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